Analysts have revealed a great demographic shift that’s occurred in American voters over the last four years. An increase in minority voters and a decrease in white non-college voters have lead many experts to proclaim a favorable edge for Obama. What isn’t obvious to most, however, is just how much this demographic shift will affect the election. GbBIS, a provider of accurate demographic and Census data, looks at what the experts have to say about how American voter demographics can greatly affect the outcome of this year’s election.
In their article for The New Republic, Ruy Teixeira and William Frey describe how they used Census data to evaluate how voter demographics have changed over the last few years. The duo used data from “the November 2008 and May 2012 Current Population Surveys, data sources which permit us to remove children and noncitizens from our counts.” “These data provide the latest and most direct estimate of demographic change relevant to the 2012 election.”
Teireira and Frey state that: “Our analysis confirms that President Obama will derive substantial benefit from shifts in the voter pool between 2008 and 2012, though there is considerable—and sometimes—surprising variation across states. Start with the national picture. Here, as in our state-by-state analysis, we concentrate on three broad demographic groups that have dominated news coverage: minorities; white non-college (or working class); and white college-educated.” “Minorities, 80 percent of whom supported Obama in 2008, have increased their share of eligible voters across the time period by around 3 percentage points. White working class voters, whom Obama lost by 18 points, have decreased their share of eligible voters by about the same amount. And white college-educated voters, whom Obama lost by only 4 points, were roughly stable.” The authors go on to discuss how the various ‘swing states’ across the country have followed this demographic trend, leading to what seems to be a demographic edge for Obama. What the results of this year’s election will be remains to be seen. What is obvious, however, is how demographic data can helps us make accurate projections of future outcomes and evaluate current trends. GbBIS has over 25 years of experience providing businesses with the demographic data they need to better manage their company. Providing the most accurate data on age, race, household income, purchase behaviors, crime, and many others, GbBIS gives businesses the tools they need to better profile their customers, identify new markets, and target their market.
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